May

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 68 – May 2006

April’s climate

• Double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in April; South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) much further southwest than average
• Suppressed convection over Nauru, Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, and from Vanuatu to Pitcairn Island
• Rainfall above average in Niue
• Much warmer than average in parts of New Caledonia and Tonga
• Eight tropical cyclones so far this season

El Niño/Southern Oscillation and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• The equatorial Pacific returns to a neutral ENSO state
• Above average rainfall likely in Niue and the Southern Cook Islands
• Below average rainfall expected in Tokelau

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