February

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 65 – February 2006

January’s climate

• Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and rainfall anomalies characteristic of weak La Niña conditions – enhanced convection over Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia – suppressed convection in the central equatorial Pacific
• Active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) further south than average
• Above average rainfall in parts of Fiji, Samoa, southern Tuvalu, Tonga, and New Caledonia; much drier in Western Kiribati
• Much warmer than average in southern Tonga and southern French Polynesia
• Three tropical cyclones so far

El Niño/Southern Oscillation and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• Equatorial Pacific is showing characteristics of a weak La Niña
• Below average rainfall over Western and Eastern Kiribati
• Large area of near or above average rainfall from Fiji southeastwards to Austral Islands

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