Forecast validation
Forecast period: January to March 2005
Enhanced convection was expected over Eastern and Western Kiribati and Tuvalu, with average or above average rainfall in Tokelau, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Society Islands of Central French Polynesia. Areas of suppressed convection with below average rainfall were expected over the Marquesas Islands and also New Caledonia, with average or below average rainfall in Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, Southern Cook Islands, and Papua New Guinea. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere.
Areas of below average rainfall occurred over New Caledonia, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, and Tonga. Rainfall was above average in Tokelau, as well as Northern French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island, and near average elsewhere. Totals were higher than expected in Northern French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island, and lower than expected in Wallis and Futuna, and Eastern and Western Kiribati. The overall 'hit' rate for the January-March 2005 rainfall outlook was about 60%. For the Southern Cook Islands, this was the 9th consecutive forecast with a correct outcome.