Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: December 2004 to February 2005

Enhanced convection and above average rainfall was expected over Eastern and Western Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Tokelau, extending to the Northern Cook Islands. Average or above average rainfall was expected in Pitcairn Island. Suppressed convection and below average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea, and also the Marquesas Islands, with average or below average rainfall over the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga, as well as the Southern Cook Islands and the Society Islands of central French Polynesia. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere.

Rainfall was generally above average from east of the Solomon Islands toward the Date Line, and east over Tokelau to central and northern French Polynesia. Areas of below average rainfall occurred over New Caledonia, Fiji, and Tonga, as well as Eastern Kiribati and much of the Solomon Islands. Rainfall was near average elsewhere. Totals were higher than expected in Papua New Guinea and the Marquesas Islands, and lower than expected in Samoa and Western and Eastern Kiribati. The overall 'hit' rate for the December 2004 – February 2005 rainfall outlook was about 50%.