Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: November 2004 to January 2005

Enhanced convection and above average rainfall were expected over Eastern and Western Kiribati and Tuvalu, with average or above average rainfall over Tokelau and the Northern Cook Islands. Suppressed convection and below or average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea southeast to the Southern Cook Islands, including Fiji, Tonga, and Niue. Average or below average rainfall was forecast for the Marquesas Islands. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere.

Rainfall was below average (and lower than expected) over Kiribati and eastward along the equator, and also over Wallis and Futuna and Samoa. Above average rainfall occurred over parts of Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and New Caledonia, as well as Pitcairn Island. Totals were near average elsewhere. The overall 'hit' rate for the November 2004 – January 2005 rainfall outlook was about 30%.