January

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 52 – January 2005

December’s climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the Solomon Islands towards Samoa – Northern French Polynesia also affected. Tropical Cyclone Judy brought high rainfall to the Tuamotu Islands of French Polynesia. Below average rainfall over Samoa, the Southern Cook Islands, central French Polynesia, Pitcairn Island, much of New Caledonia, Fiji’s Western Division, and Southern Tonga. Much warmer conditions in Fiji and parts of French Polynesia.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The Tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a weak El Niño state with the December Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at -1.1. Above average rainfall is likely in Western and Eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu. New Caledonia and the Marquesas Islands are expected to experience below average rainfall.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Tropical rainfall outlook: January to March 2005.

Feature article: Facing weather and climate variability with indigenous knowledge.

Tropical Pacific rainfall: December 2004.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.

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