Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: October to December 2004

Enhanced convection was expected with above average rainfall over Eastern and Western Kiribati, and areas of above or average rainfall extending to the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Tokelau, as well as Pitcairn and the Austral Islands. Areas of suppressed convection with average or below average rainfall were expected in Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas Islands. Rainfall was expected to be near average elsewhere.

Rainfall was above average over the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and the Austral Islands (all as expected), and in Niue and the Marquesas Islands (both higher than expected). Below average rainfall occurred in Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands (both as expected), and in Western Kiribati, Tokelau, Fiji, and Wallis and Futuna (all lower than predicted). Totals were near average elsewhere. The overall 'hit' rate for the October to December 2004 rainfall outlook was about 55%.