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Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: August to October 2004

Enhanced convection was expected with above average rainfall over Eastern and Western Kiribati, and average or above average rainfall in Tuvalu, the Northern and Southern Cook Islands, and the Tuamotu and Austral Islands of French Polynesia. Suppressed convection with average or below average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Fiji. Rainfall was expected to be near average elsewhere.

Rainfall anomalies occurred much as expected in Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Cook Islands, and the Society, Marquesas, and Austral Islands of French Polynesia. However, elsewhere rainfall patterns differed from what was forecast. Enhanced convection and/or above average rainfall affected the region from the Solomon Islands southeast to Niue, including Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga. Rainfall was also above average in the Marquesas and Pitcairn Islands. Rainfall was below average in New Caledonia, and from Wallis and Futuna east to the Society Islands, including the Northern Cook Islands. The overall ‘hit’ rate for the August to October 2004 rainfall outlook was 50%.