October

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 49 – October 2004

September’s climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from Papua New Guinea to Rotuma Island (Fiji). Convergence also occurred south of Fiji east to the Southern Cook Islands. High rainfall persisted throughout much of Tonga. Below average rainfall occurred in Vanuatu, New Caledonia, central and southern French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island. Above average air temperatures occurred in Samoa and the Society Islands of French Polynesia.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The tropical Pacific continues on the brink of weak El Niño conditions. Enhanced convection is expected in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three-month outlook: Below average rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, Samoa and the Southern Cook Islands.

Feature article: ENSO Update.

Tropical Pacific rainfall: September 2004.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.

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