September

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 48 – September 2004

August’s climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from the Solomon Islands to the region south of the Cook Islands; very high rainfall occurred throughout much of Fiji and Tonga. Suppressed convection occurred over Papua New Guinea with continued low rainfall in parts of Queensland, Australia. Intermittent equatorial westerly wind bursts occurred. Air temperatures were below average in Vanuatu and New Caledonia; it was warmer in Tuvalu, Samoa, and the Southern Cook Islands.

On the 21st, a tornado on the western side of Tongatapu Island (Tonga), causing severe damages to villages, crops and houses. The estimated cost of this event is up to $T100,000.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): Weak El Niño conditions are present in the central Pacific Enhanced convection is expected in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati. Near average or below average rainfall is likely in New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga and the Marquesas Islands.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three-month outlook: Rainfall is expected to be above average in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati. Another region of enhanced convection is expected near the Tuamotu Islands extending southeast to Pitcairn Island, where rainfall is likely to be near average or above average.

Feature article: Pacific Dialogue on Water and Climate.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.

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