Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: June to August 2004

Enhanced convection with above average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea, with average or above average rainfall in the Solomon Islands and Western Kiribati. Another region of average or above average rainfall was forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, and the Society and Tuamotu Islands, with above average rainfall in the Austral Islands. Suppressed convection was expected over Eastern Kiribati, extending southwest to Vanuatu, including Tokelau, Samoa, Tuvalu, and Fiji, where rainfall was expected to be average or below average. Rainfall was expected to near average elsewhere.

Enhanced convection and above average rainfall affected the region from Vanuatu to Tonga, including Fiji, Western Samoa, and Niue, as well as the Marquesas Islands and Pitcairn Island. Rainfall was higher than expected in both these regions. Rainfall was below average in Tuvalu. Rainfall was lower than forecast in Papua New Guinea, along with central and southern French Polynesia. The overall ‘hit’ rate for the June to August 2004 rainfall outlook was about 50%.

Tropical pacific rainfall - August 2004

Rainfall totalling 200 percent or more is normally well above average. Totals of 40 percent or less are normally well below average. Highlighted values are new records.

Data are as received and may be subject to change with later quality control. The data in italics are obtained from synoptic weather reports and can sometimes differ from the true values, due to communications or station outage, etc. Superscripts represent days of missing data.