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Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: April to June 2004

Rainfall was expected to be above average in the Solomon Islands. Regions of enhanced convection and average or above average rainfall were also expected in Papua New Guinea and Western Kiribati, and over Tonga and Niue. Average or below average rainfall was expected over Eastern Kiribati and the Tuamotu and Society Islands, with suppressed convection over the Marquesas Islands. Near average rainfall was predicted elsewhere in the region.

A large region of enhanced convection occurred in the western equatorial region as expected. However, rainfall was above average in the Marquesas Islands, and from central French Polynesia east to Pitcairn Island, being higher than forecast. Rainfall was as forecast in most other regions. The overall ‘hit’ rate for the April to June 2004 rainfall outlook was about 60%, the highest for several months.