Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: March to May 2004

Enhanced convection was expected in Western Kiribati, and over Wallis and Futuna, and the Society Islands, resulting in average or above rainfall there. Average or below average rainfall was expected in Pitcairn Island with suppressed convection over the Marquesas Islands where rainfall was forecast to be below average. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere in the region.

Enhanched convection occurred in the western equatorial region, with above average rainfall over the Solomon Islands (higher than forecast) and parts of Western Kiribati. Rainfall was also above average in northern and central French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Island (all higher than expected). Rainfall was below average in Eastern Kiribati, and much of the region from the Wallis and Futuna Islands to the Austral Islands, including Niue and the Southern Cook Islands (all lower than expected). The overall ‘hit’ rate for the March to May 2004 rainfall outlook was about 40%, indicating decreased skill in this intraseasonal transition period.