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March

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 42 – 5 March 2004

February’s climate: Tropical cyclone ‘Ivy’, the second this season, brought severe winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Vanuatu on the 25 – 26th of February. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was located further south than usual in many areas, with above average rainfall over much of Fiji and the Southern Cook Islands. An extensive region of below average rainfall occurred from Western Kiribati to Pitcairn Island.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The February Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +0.7. The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are well above average in the southwest Pacific.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Suppressed convection in the Eastern Pacific is likely to result in average or below average rainfall in the Tuamotu Islands and Pitcairn Island’s region, and below average rainfall over the Marquesas Islands. Above average or average rainfall is expected over Western Kiribati, Vanuatu, the Wallis and Futuna Islands and the Society Islands.

Feature article: Pacific Island weather and the MJO

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.


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