February

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 41 – 5 February 2004

January’s climate: The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was a major feature in January’s climate, being located much further north and east than usual, extending east from the region north of the Solomon Islands, toward the Marquesas Islands and Pitcairn Island. Rainfall was well above average in the SPCZ affected region, where totals were at least 300 mm in many locations. A large region of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall affected the region from the Coral Sea southeast to Tonga, including the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Fiji. A smaller region of suppressed convection and generally below average rainfall occurred over central and southern French Polynesia, with record low rainfall at Tahiti. To date, 'Heta', which devastated Niue on 6 January, is the only tropical cyclone to have occurred this season.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to ease.The mean Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for January was -1.3. Global climate models indicate neutral conditions till May 2004, with the hint of a warm event developing over the winter of 2004.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Rainfall is expected to be above average over Western Kiribati and the Solomon Islands, with average or below average rainfall likely over Eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas Islands. Near average rainfall is expected elsewhere in the region.

Feature article: The Southwest Pacific Climate in 2003

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.

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