Forecast validation
Forecast period: May to July 2003
Enhanced convection with average or above average rainfall was expected from the Solomon Islands across to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu, Tokelau, and Samoa. Average or above average rainfall was also expected over the Society Islands. Average or below average rainfall was projected from Fiji across to Niue, as well as over the Tuamotu Islands. Below average rainfall was forecast for the Marquesas Islands of northern French Polynesia. Near average rainfall was projected elsewhere.
Rainfall was below average in an extensive region along the equator from Nauru east over Kiribati and the region north of the Marquesas Islands, and also from Fiji southeast to the Austral Islands, including Tonga and Niue. Rainfall was above average over much of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and Tuvalu, and also from Samoa southeast across the Society and Tuamotu Islands of French Polynesia. Rainfall was higher than forecast over New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Samoa, and the Tuamotu Islands of French Polynesia, and lower than forecast over Western and Eastern Kiribati.
The overall ‘hit rate’ for the May to July rainfall outlook was 61%.