Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: April to June 2003

Enhanced convection was expected over Western and Eastern Kiribati, possibly extending south to include the Solomon Islands, Tokelau and Samoa. Below average rainfall was expected in the Marquesas Islands of northern French Polynesia, with average or below average rainfall in New Caledonia and Fiji. Near average rainfall was projected elsewhere.

Rainfall was above average in Vanuatu and from Tuvalu to the Society and Tuamotu Islands of French Polynesia, including Samoa. Below average rainfall occurred in Western and Eastern Kiribati, and the Marquesas Islands, and also over parts of Fiji, Tonga, and Niue. Rainfall was higher than forecast over Vanuatu, Tuvalu, and much of central and southern French Polynesia, and lower than forecast over Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tonga, and Niue. The overall 'hit rate' for the April to June rainfall outlook was 55%, the lowest for the past 10 months.