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February

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 29 – 7 February 2003

January’s climate: The decaying El Niño continues to affect Southwest Pacific climate patterns with enhanced convection and above average rainfall over the equatorial regions of Kiribati and Tuvalu. Continuing suppressed convection and below average rainfall was evident over eastern Australia and New Caledonia, extending to parts of Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna and Fiji. Rainfall was below average in Northern and Southern Cook Islands, parts of French Polynesia and Pitcarin Island. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was in its normal position during January. There were three tropical cyclones ‘Ami’, ‘Beni’ and ‘Cilla’ during January.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The El Niño event is likely to last through the southern hemisphere autumn. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has weakened in January to -0.2, with a three month mean of -0.8, indicating that the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)conditions may have peaked and appear to be waning. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial Pacific weakened during January.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Enhanced convection and above average rainfall is expected to persist over equatorial region, with average or above average rainfall in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, Northern Cook Islands and Society Islands. Below average or average rainfall is likely from Vanuatu trending south east to Austral Islands is likely. Below average rainfall is forecast for New Caledonia, Marquesas and Pitcairn Islands.

Feature article: Tropical cyclone update

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data


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