January

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 28 – 9 January 2003

December’s Climate: The El Niño episode is continuing to affect Southwest Pacific rainfall patterns, with enhanced convection and above average rainfall over Western and Eastern Kiribati, and the Northern Cook Islands, and contrasting areas of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall extending from Papua-New Guinea, southeast to the north of New Caledonia, including the Coral Sea, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. Rainfall was also well below average in parts of Fiji and Tonga, as well as the Marquesas Islands in northern French Polynesia, and above average in the Society Islands of French Polynesia, and on Pitcairn Island. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced further east than average. There were two tropical cyclones ‘Yolanda’ and ‘Zoe’ during December.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is expected to weaken and ease back to neutral during autumn 2003. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) strengthened slightly in December to -1.3, with a three month mean of -1.0, indicating continuing El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the region. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific strengthened during December.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: The El Niño related convection and tendency towards above average rainfall is expected to persist in Eastern and Western Kiribati, the Society Islands and Pitcairn Island. Rainfall should tends to trend below average or average from New Caledonia, east to Niue and the Marquesas Island.

Feature Article: Tropical cyclone update

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data

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