Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: September to November 2002

The influence of the El Niño was expected to have a significant influence on rainfall anomalies, with more convergence and a tendency towards above average rainfall for Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Tokelau. Wallis and Futuna, and Pitcairn Island were also expected to receive above average or average rainfall. Below average or average rainfall was expected in a broad area from Papua New Guinea southeast to New Caledonia, across to Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands. Average rainfall was forecast for other areas.

The overall rainfall anomaly pattern was, again, similar to what was expected. However, the region of enhanced convection and above average rainfall was larger then expected, extending to the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and also to the Marquesas Islands. The average or below average region east of the date line extended to include the Northern Cook Islands and the Society Islands. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the September to November rainfall outlook was 65%.