Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: July to September 2002

Rainfall was projected to be above average in Western and Eastern Kiribati, and average or above average in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Tuvalu. A trend towards below average rainfall was expected in New Caledonia, Fiji, Samoa, Tokelau and the Marquesas Islands. Average rainfall was forecast for other areas.

The rainfall outlook was as expected for most countries near and west of the Equator. However, the region of above average rainfall extended further south than expected to affect Fiji, Tonga, Niue, parts of Samoa and the Marquesas Islands. Rainfall was lower than expected in Papua New Guinea, and from the Southern Cook Islands east to Pitcairn, including parts of the Austral Islands. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the July to September rainfall outlook was about 50%.