September

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 24 – 6 September 2002

August’s Climate: A very extensive area of enhanced convection (larger than the continent of Australia) affected a wide area of the western-central tropical Pacific in August, enhancing rainfall from Micronesia across to Hawaii, Nauru, Kiribati and Tuvalu. Record high August rainfall occurred throughout much of Western Kiribati. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) continued to be weak east of the date line in the Southwest Pacific. In contrast, below average rainfall, affected much of Indonesia, Australia and Papua New Guinea. Willis Island, in the western Coral Sea, has now recorded 13 consecutive months with less than 75% of average rainfall. Below average rainfall persisted in the Southern Cook Islands.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): Based on the current conditions in the Pacific, El Niño is likely to persist into early 2003. The Southern Oscillation Index remains negative and the equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to be warmer than average.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Above average rainfall is likely in both Western and Eastern Kiribati. Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, and Pitcairn Island are likely to experience average or above average rainfall. Average or below average rainfall is expected from Papua New Guinea across to Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands.

Feature Article: Current El Niño Situation.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data

A complete copy of The Island Climate Update is available as an Adobe Acrobat PDF file. This does not contain any extra information over that obtained by clicking on the individual items above.

To view the PDF file, you'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader, which you can download free from Adobe.