ENSO & SST

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures

Warm seas persist throughout much of the Pacific

The chance of an El Niño remains high

In the equatorial Pacific, a band of anomalously warm water persists about the dateline (at least 1.5°C above average).Although much of the Southwest Pacific remain about 0.5°C–1.0°C above average, there is cooling in the Coral Sea particularly north of New Zealand and around New Caledonia. A large region of warm water persists just southeast of Pitcairn Island.

There is still no typical El Niño cold horseshoe SSTanomaly pattern in the Western Pacific.

Equatorial SSTs remained above average throughout July (1.0–1.5°C) within NINO3 and NINO4 regions. During July, there was slight cooling in parts of the Eastern Pacific.

Weaker than average trade winds continued about the date line in the Western Pacific during July, a signal that could result in further SST warming over the coming months and more organised El Niño characteristics. Although this El Niño event may only be weak, the next couple of months will be important in determining its further development and strength.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for July 2002

Mean sea surface temperatures (°C) for July 2002