Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: March to May 2002

Rainfall was expected to be above average in Niue, and average to above average from Fiji across to Tonga, and in Western Kiribati. Below average rainfall was forecast for the region north of about 12°S from Tokelau to the Marquesas, including Eastern Kiribati. Average rainfall was expected in the other parts of the region.

Rainfall was as expected for many of the forecast areas. However, it was higher than forecast in New Caledonia, Samoa and the Marquesas and Austral Islands. Rainfall was lower than expected in Niue, the Society Islands and Pitcairn. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the March to May rainfall outlook was about 60%.