Forecast validation
Forecast period: February to April 2002
The SPCZ was expected to be more active and further south of its usual position west of the date line, with enhanced trade winds in the east. Areas of above average rainfall were forecast for parts of the Solomon Islands and Fiji. Below average rainfall was forecast for many islands from Western Kiribati across to the Marquesas Islands. Average rainfall was expected elsewhere.
The SPCZ was more active than usual west of the date line, but it affected a much wider area than predicted, resulting in higher rainfall than forecast in Papua-New Guinea, New Caledonia, Tuvalu and Tonga. Rainfall was also higher than expected in Kiribati and the Marquesas and Austral Islands. Rainfall was lower than expected from central French Polynesia across to Pitcairn Island.
The overall ‘hit rate’ for the February to April rainfall outlook was less than 50%.