Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: January to March 2002

The SPCZ was expected to be more active than usual and also further north than average of its normal location. Rainfall was expected to be average to above average in equatorial latitudes from Western Kiribati southeast to Tonga and Niue, including Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, and Samoa.Average to below average rainfall was expected in Vanuatu, Eastern Kiribati, the Society Islands, and the Southern Cooks, with below average rainfall in the Marquesas. Average rainfall was expected in most other areas.

This scenario was correct for many islands. However, the SPCZ was further south than predicted resulting in lower than expected rainfall in the Tokelaus, Wallis and Futuna, Northern Cook Islands and Samoa and higher than forecast rainfall in areas of Papua-New Guinea, New Caledonia, Fiji and the Austral Islands. Mixed rainfall patterns occurred over Vanuatu. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the January to March rainfall outlook was about 65%.