Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

•  Strong El Niño conditions persisted in October 2015. 
•  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the central and eastern Pacific
•  El Niño is certain (100% chance) to continue over the coming season (November 2015 – January 2016).    

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology in the central Pacific.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

•  Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia, Wallis & Futuna, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Samoa, Vanuatu, the Federated States of Micronesia, the southern Cook Islands, Niue and Tonga. 

• Above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati and eastern Kiribati.