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March

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 18 – 10 March 2002

February’s Climate: An extensive area of enhanced convection occurred from Papua-New Guinea to Eastern Kiribati, with another convective band associated with a southward displacement of the SPCZ extending from Tuvalu southeast through Tonga. Rainfall was well above average in parts of Western Kiribati, Fiji, southern Tonga, and parts of southern French Polynesia. Below average rainfall persisted over the Northern Cook Islands, many islands in French Polynesia, as well as parts of the Queensland coast of Australia, and the Coral Sea. Unusually high mean air temperatures, due to much warmer than average seas, were measured in parts of Fiji, Samoa, and southern French Polynesia. Five tropical cyclones have occurred so far this season. 'Claudia', the only occurrence in February, developed west of New Caledonia on 11 February, reaching hurricane force as it tracked southeast passing north of Norfolk Island. A new tropical cyclone, 'Des' was west of New Caledonia at the time of writing. It is expected to take a southeast track toward northern New Zealand.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): An extensive area of much warmer than usual water at the surface extends across much of the tropical Southwest Pacific, including Kiribati. A small region of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures remains in the eastern equatorial Pacific. A small area of warmer than normal SSTs now exists near the equator along the South American coast. The 3-month mean of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is still neutral. The equatorial trades winds remain slightly enhanced east of the date line, but westerly anomalies occurred to the west. Most global SST forecast models indicate neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the next three months.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Below average rainfall is likely in a large part of the east of the region from Tokelau to the Marquesas, including Eastern Kiribati. Rainfall is projected to be above average in Niue, and average to above average from Fiji across to Tonga, and in Western Kiribati. Average rainfall is expected in the other parts of the region.

Feature Article: El Niño Update.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data


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