Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño conditions continued to strengthen during July 2015.
• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies continued to intensify in the eastern Pacific.
• El Niño is virtually certain (97% chance) to continue in August–October 2015.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned north of climatology.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Vanuatu, Fiji, New Caledonia, Niue, Tonga and Papua New Guinea. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, Wallis and Futuna, the Northern Cooks Islands and the Southern Cook Islands, Samoa,  the Society Islands,  the Solomon Islands and Tuamotu.

• Above normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Pitcairn Island and Tokelau.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for western Kiribati and eastern Kiribati. Below normal SSTs are forecast for Fiji and Tonga.