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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast June to August 2015

6 July 2015

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

During the June to August 2015 oeriod, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to be positioned north of climatology west of the Interbational Dateline. The SPCZ is also expected to extend less eastward than normal. Areas of higher than normal convectice activity are expected in the root zone of the SPCZ extending towards the Interbational Dateline.

 

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.