Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: November 2001 to January 2002

The SPCZ was expected to remain south of its normal position east of the Dateline, with slightly enhanced trade winds in the central Pacific, resulting in average to below average rainfall throughout Tuvalu, Eastern Kiribati, the northern Cook Islands, Samoa, and the Marquesas Islands of French Polynesia. Average to above average rainfall was expected in Papua New Guinea, the Solomons, Vanuatu, and Western Kiribati, with enhanced convection likely in areas west of the Dateline. Average rainfall was expected for most other islands.

This scenario was correct for many islands. Rainfall was lower than expected in Vanuatu, parts of New Caledonia, Tonga, and the Southern Cook Islands, and higher than forecast for some areas in the Northern Cook Islands, Fiji, and the Tuamotu Islands. The overall 'hit rate' for the November to January rainfall outlook was 62%.