February

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 17 – 10 February 2002

January's Climate: Rainfall patterns switched in January, with dry sunny conditions replacing the wet weather of December over much of Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, and most of French Polynesia – some sites having record low January rainfall. Rainfall was also well below average along the Queensland coast of Australia and in the Kermadecs. Enhanced convection occurred over the Coral Sea, Vanuatu, and Fiji, where the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and further south than usual west of the Dateline. Rainfall was above average in areas of Fiji, Niue, and parts of the Marquesas, Vanuatu and New Caledonia. Only three tropical cyclones have occurred for the season to date. 'Waka' was the most recent and severe, devastating northern Tonga early in January.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): Variability has continued in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over recent months, with the 3-month mean of -0.1 remaining in the neutral range. Trade winds were slightly enhanced in the central Equatorial Pacific, with westerly anomalies in the west. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remain weak, but positive anomalies prevail in the tropics about and west of the dateline. Half of the global SST forecast models show strong indications of an evolution towards warm ENSO conditions in the months following the Southern Hemisphere wet season.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Below average rainfall is likely over a large part of the equatorial Pacific from Western Kiribati right across to the Marquesas Islands of northern French Polynesia. Areas of above average rainfall are expected in parts of the Solomon and Fiji island groups. Average rainfall is forecast for most other areas.

Feature Article: The Southwest Pacific Climate in 2001.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data

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