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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast July to September 2014

3 July 2014

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eight climate models.

The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every five degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

For July - September 2014, the SPCZ is expected to sit close to its normal position. Climate forecasts indicate the SPCZ will be mostly restricted to well west of the International Dateline.

Intense convection is expected near the Bismarck Archipelago, to the northwest of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands on average over the forecast period.

The ensemble of globalclimate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher thannormal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates theaverage SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of eightclimate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and twostandard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ positionevery  five degrees of longitude. Thepurple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convectiondeveloping within the SPCZ.