Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The tropical Pacific was bordeline between neutral and El Niño conditions in May 2014.

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued to increase in the central and eastern Pacific.

• Chances for El Niño over the June - August 2014 period are about 60%. El Niño becomes even more likely as we progress into winter.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned mostly close to normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Samoa, Fiji, New Caledonia, Pitcairn Island, the Solomon Islands, the Society Islands, the northern Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, Tokelau, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna and the Tuamotu archipelago. Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas.

• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Eastern Kiribati, Western Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Southern Cook Islands.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati. Below than normal SSTs are predicted for the Austral Islands.