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Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain higher than normal in the central south Pacific.
  • International guidance indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are very likely (88 % chance) to persist for the coming three months.

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

  • The SPCZ is expected to be positioned slightly south of normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Eastern Kiribati, the Society Islands, the Tuamotu archipelago and Tuvalu.
  • Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia, Western Kiribati, Niue, Fiji and Tonga.
  • Near normal SSTs are expected for most of the southwest Pacific. 
ICU 161 cover. [NIWA]
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