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South Pacific Convergence Zone forecast January to March 2014

14 January 2014

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude.

The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.

The ensemble of dynamical forecasts indicates the SPCZ is expected to be displaced slightly southwest of normal for the time  of year.

The greatest uncertainty in its location is east of the International Dateline.

Intense convection is suggested near the  Bismarck archipelago east of Papua New Guinea and near the Solomon Islands.

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position. The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and ‘whiskers’ indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude. The purple shading is proportional to the probability of intense convection developing within the SPCZ.