Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral ENSO state.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to be higher than normal in the central south Pacific.
• International guidance indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are extremely likely (96 % chance) to persist for the coming three months (January to March 2014).

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)

• The SPCZ is expected to be positioned slightly southwest of normal for the coming three months.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, the Society Islands, the Marquesas and Eastern Kiribati.
• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Niue, Tonga and the Federated States of Micronesia.
• Near normal SSTs are forecast for most Island groups, but no guidance is provided for most of the central and west Pacific.