05 June 2013
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- Sea surface temperatures are slightly cooler than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but close to normal elsewhere along the Equator.
- All oceanic and atmospheric ENSO indicators are in the neutral range.
- The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions will persist for the coming three months (June to August 2013).
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)
- For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to be positioned near normal or just south of normal for this time of year.
Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts
- Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Tokelau, Tuvalu, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati and the Federated States of Micronesia.
- Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Marquesas, the Solomon Islands and the Tuamotu archipelago.
- Near normal or above normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for Vanuatu, Fiji, the Southern Cook Islands and the Austral Islands.
