Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

• The Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are slightly warmer than normal along the Equator.
• All oceanic and atmospheric ENSO indicators are in the neutral range.
• The international consensus indicates that neutral ENSO conditions will persist for the coming three months (May to July 2013). 

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) 

• For the coming three months, the SPCZ is forecast to sit slightly south of normal for this time of year. 

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts 

• Northern Cook Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu, Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati and the Marquesas.
• Near or above normal rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.
• Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, Tonga, Samoa, Wallis & Futuna, and the Tuamotu Archipelago.