South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) forecast September to November 2012

The ensemble of global climate models for rainfall that are used in METPI show an area of higher than normal rainfall associated with the SPCZ position.

The green line indicates the average SPCZ position for the forecast period based on the average of 8 climate models. The white vertical bars and 'whiskers' indicate the one and two standard deviations between the model projections of the SPCZ position every 5 degrees of longitude. 

For the coming three months, the models indicate that the SPCZ is likely to sit in a position near or slightly south of climatology (near normal for this time of year) with a mean displacement southward in the Western Pacific and a northward displacement in the eastern Pacific.

Uncertainty in the SPCZ position for the forecast period is greatest east of the Dateline.