Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is still in a neutral ENSO state, but if present warming rates continue El Nino should be reached by austral spring.
  

The South Pacific Convergence Zone

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone is forecast to sit close to or slightly south of its climatological position.
  

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is expected for the Northern Cook Islands, Samoa, the Society Islands, the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tuvalu and Wallis & Futuna.
• Normal or above normal rainfall is forecast for Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tonga, and Papua New Guinea.
• Sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to warm along the Equator east of the Dateline.