Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• ENSO diagnostics indicate La Niña conditions that existed in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean have diminished and that the event has drawn to a close. Some remnant anomalies from this event may exist in the transition to austral winter. Most dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions for late autumn and early winter.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 - 12 season

• Normal or below average numbers are likely for most islands during the remainder of the southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season (February - April).
• TC Daphne (still active at the time of this forecast) formed in late March 2012, bringing the seasonal total for the ICU forecast region to five named storms.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Society Islands, Samoa and the Northern Cook Islands in the coming three months.
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Papua New Guinea.
• The sea surface temperature anomalies associated La Niña are more muted relative to prior months. Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast for Eastern Kiribati.