Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• ENSO diagnostics indicate La Niña conditions exist in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, but there are signs of weakening. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest La Niña will transition to a neutral state by the end of autumn.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 - 12 season

• Normal or below average numbers are likely for most islands during the remainder of the southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season (February - April).
• Near normal TC numbers, with eight to ten named storms, is expected for the seasonal total.
• Two named storms (TC Cyril and TC Jasmine) developed in the ICU forecast region during February 2012.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, and the Northern Cook Islands in the coming three months.
• Normal or above normal rainfall is expected for New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Tonga, Niue and Fiji.
• Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast for Eastern Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas, and Tokelau.