Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• ENSO diagnostics indicate La Niña conditions exist in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest La Nina will continue to persist at least moderate strength through mid-autumn.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 - 12 season

• Normal or below average numbers are likely for most islands during the remainder of the southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season (February - April).
• Near normal TC numbers, with eight to ten named storms, is expected for the seasonal total.
• No named storms developed in the ICU forecast region during January 2012.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, and the Northern Cook Islands in the coming three months.
• Above normal rainfall is expected for Vanuatu, Tonga, and Fiji.
• Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast for Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas, and Tokelau while above normal SSTs are expected for the Austral Islands and Southern Cook Islands.