Introduction

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • ENSO diagnostics indicate La Niña conditions exist in the EquatorialPacific Ocean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest
  • La Nina will continue to persist at least moderate strength through summer.

Tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 -12 season

  • Below average numbers likely, but increased activity in the lateseason near North Queensland and French Polynesia.
  • Five to eight named storms are likely for the current season.
  • Two named storms developed in the ICU forecast region duringDecember 2011.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

  • Below normal rainfall is forecast for Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Tuamotuarchipelago, Western Kiribati and the Northern Cook Islands in the
  • coming three months.
  • Above normal rainfall is expected for Vanuatu, New Caledonia,Tonga, Fiji, Niue and the Southern Cook Islands.
  • Below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast forTokelau, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati,
  • the Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas, while above normal SSTs are expected for the Austral Islands, New Caledonia and Tonga.