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Island Climate Update 129 - June 2011

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region 

Introduction

Introduction to Island Climate Update 129 - June 2011

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • La Niña in the equatorial Pacific region is all but gone, and conditions are close to neutral. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions will exist during austral winter.

Summary of tropical cyclone activity for 2010-11 season

  • Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the SW Pacific region this season, with an estimated cost of damages exceeding $3.5 Billion USD.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Conditions in the tropical Pacific eased during May to lie in the neutral range by the end of the month.

Conditions in the tropical Pacific eased during May to lie in the neutral range by the end of the month. Remnants of the La Niña event that has been in place since mid–2010 are evident, but the main indicators are now near normal. The NINO3.4 SST anomaly was –0.4°C for May, with NINO3 and NINO4 at –0.1°C and –0.6°C respectively (3–month means –0.6, –0.2, –0.6°C).

Summary of SW Pacific TC activity for the 2010 -11 season

The tropical cyclone season for 2010–11 has now closed.

The tropical cyclone season for 2010–11 has now closed. The ICU forecast for this season inidcated normal or above normal tropical cyclone (TC) activity for most islands west of the International Date Line in the southwest Pacific, with reduced activity east of the International Date Line due to La Niña conditions in the equatorial and tropical Pacific. A total of nine to 12 named TCs were forecast for the southwest Pacific (between 135°E to 120°W) for the period November 2010 through April 2010.

Data Sources

Sources of South Pacific Rainfall data

This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:

  • American Samoa
  • Australia
  • Cook Islands
  • Fiji
  • French Polynesia
  • Kiribati
  • New Caledonia
  • New Zealand
  • Niue
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Pitcairn Island
  • Samoa
  • Solomon Islands
  • Tokelau
  • Tonga
  • Tuvalu
  • Vanuatu

International Partners:

Meteo France