Introduction

Introduction to Island Climate Update 120 - September 2010

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• La Niña is building in the equatorial Pacific region. All dynamical climate models project continuation of La Niña through Austral spring. The event is expected to continue into early 2011.

ICU feature article- APN workshop in Auckland

• An Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research will see Pacific Island Meteorological Services engaging in cutting-edge research.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, and the Marquesas, while below near or below normal rainfall is expected for the Northern Cook Islands, Pitcairn Island, the Tuamotu Archipelago and Tokelau.
• The South Pacific Convergence Zone is expected to be displaced southwest of normal. Above normal rainfall is expected for New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, Tonga and Samoa.
• Near or below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast for the Marquesas, Western Kiribati and Eastern Kiribati, while Niue and Tonga are expected to have above normal sea surface temperatures.

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