Introduction

Introduction to Island Climate Update 116 - May 2010

Number 116 - May 2010

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Moderately strong El Niño conditions that existed in the equatorial Pacific earlier in the year are weakening. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño through autumn 2010, and neutral conditions for austral winter.

Tropical cyclone summary

• A total of 10 storms occurred for the southwest Pacific during 2009/10, with 12 reported fatalities and a miniumum of $163M USD in damages.

Multi-model Ensemble Tool for Pacific Island (METPI) rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, while near normal or below normal is forecast for Vanuatu.

• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati.

• Near normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for Papua New Guinea, Western Kiribati, the Northern Cook Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, Tuvalu, and Tokelau.

 

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