Forecast validation: November 2009 to January 2010
A region of suppressed convection was forecast for the southwest Pacific extending southeast from Vanuatu to Pitcairn Island. Below average rainfall was expected for New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Niue and Tonga, while near or below average rainfall was forecast for Wallis & Futuna, Fiji, the Southern Cook Islands, Pitcairn Island and the Marquesas. Near normal rainfall was forecast for the Austral Islands, the Tuamotu Archipelago, Samoa, and Papua New Guinea. Enhanced convection was projected along the Equator extending from Western to Eastern Kiribati, and also near Tokelau. These regions were expected to receive above normal rainfall. The Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands and the Society Islands were expected to receive near or above normal rainfall.
The November 2009–January 2010 forecast validation was calculated for 10 island groups (ten Pacific Islands were forecast as climatology and were unscorable). The global island group ‘hit’ rate was 72%, 8% higher than average for November forecasts, and 11% higher than the average for all months combined. Rainfall was underprojected for the Society Islands and for Gambier (Southern Tuamotu).