Introduction

Introduction to Island Climate Update 112 - January 2010

Number 112 - January 2010

December’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced slightly southwest of normal near the Solomon Islands.

• Suppressed convection in the central part of the Southwest Pacific near the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia.

• Mostly well below normal rainfall for many parts of New Caledonia and the North Tasman region.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts

• El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific. Many dynamical climate models project the continuation of El Niño into early autumn 2010.

• Below normal rainfall is forecast for the Marquesas, Fiji, Vanuatu, Niue, and Tonga.

• Above normal rainfall is expected for Western Kiribati, Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Society Islands.

• Above normal SSTs are forecast for Eastern Kiribati and Western Kiribati. Normal or above normal SSTs are forecast for the Northern Cook Islands, Tuvalu, Tokelau, and all of French Polynesia. SSTs are expected to be near or below normal around Fiji, Niue, Tonga and Pitcairn Island.

 

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